When will this COVID wave be over? 4 numbers to keep an eye on and why


In the face of Australia recent changes in COVID testing, working when we got to the peak of the cases was, in schools, straightforward.

We looked at the number of new daily cases, available through PCR. Since then, we have made some great discoveries about the spread of COVID, testing and hospitalization – everything depends on daily statistics.

However, we have seen a huge increase in recent times when people test positive for antigen tests, especially if to explain their consequences for public health officials is now possible and compulsory.

That is why it has been a few days before we have calculated the necessary numbers with any accuracy. Only then will we be able to speak with boldness when we reach the peak and descend to the other side.

1. Number of new daily cases

Many people by now would have seen the tide of the plague. It is a conspiracy to increase the number of people who are exposed to COVID-19 daily. Here is the recent epidemic in New South Wales.

In terms of the date, districts and territories use different cutting intervals to define a 24-hour period. As the authorities investigate, another trial date may change. So, do we set up daily crime statistics, or “true” case numbers after the changes?

This seems complicated, but the hardest part is trying to explain the case.

Rapid antigen testing before human availability for home use, cases were obtained from good PCR tests.

Then, why large lines in PCR trials with many people, even those with symptoms, quitting and not testing, our testing method changed.

The Minister of State agreed eliminating the need for PCR testing to confirm that they are HIV positive antigen running tests results.

As more and more states are going to report quality PCR tests and rapid antigen testing, we still need to release that information. Maybe, someone can get all the tests and double double!

The uncertainty of the statistical statistics also affects some of the key components that we use to monitor current waves.

2. Reff

The ideal birth rate (Reff) is a measure of the number of other people almost every patient transmits. We want this to be below 1 to prevent the spread. In its simplicity, Reff is a modern number, shared by case number four days ago.

Since we now have a lot of problems with reporting and counting case numbers, it will be a few days before we can translate Reff continuously into each and every region again.

Read more: What are the signs of an omicron?

3. Percentage of tests

This is the number of people who have been tested positive for all COVID-19 tests. It is an important measure because it provides an indication of the number of undiagnosed cases in the area.

The World Health Organization indicating if it is below 5%, things are improving.

While the diagnosis was limited to PCR tests, we had good knowledge of the number of tests, and the number that was positive.

Now, states and territories are going to report the results of an antigen test in a hurry, not straightforward.

Some areas like it Queensland I ask you to report positive results. This means that we no longer know the number of tests that were performed. SA Health encourages people to reports Bad tests as well, which is a very good system.

4. Hospital admission number

As Australia opens, we have been told to pay more attention to COVID-19 hospitals, not just statistics. But even that can be difficult.

Obviously if someone is tested for COVID-19 and then hospitalized, then he or she is eligible. But what if he is admitted as a possible crime?

And hospitalization numbers will also include people who are supervised in a hospital-at-home making color? Other than that, they still carry medical supplies.

Finally, what if he was allowed to do something but was later found to be COVID-19 in the hospital?

The hardest part is trying to calculate the clinical value of COVID-19. This is the number of people in the hospital with COVID-19 divided by the number of people found. But you have to choose the time you are discussing, another argument completely.

There are also similar issues in measuring the quantity and cost of people in the most powerful hospital.

Read more: We are seeing more COVID patients in the ICU as the numbers go up. That affects the whole hospital

How do these changes affect models?

NSW Health soon model release looking at what lies ahead.

With the ongoing blockade in NSW, the figure shows 4,700 hospitals, of which 273 are in central hospital until the end of January.

It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. It does seem, however, that even when interest rates soar, they do not affect any of the estimates that will reach a peak.

Models still need to be accurate despite the changes in the COVID test. This is good news for some areas and regions that rely on model results in planning.

Read more: Scientific imaging is directing our response to coronavirus. But what is the scientific example?

From here?

A good start would be to have a valid report of rapid antigen effects, both positive and negative. In this way we can also calculate the number of tests.

The United Kingdom has a good plan. After you take the antigen running test there, you scan the QR code on the package and display the test results as positive, negative or negative in the main government database.

Most importantly, let us have one international organization responsible for reporting, compiling and reporting on COVID-19. It can be Australia Institute of Health and Welfare. It would also be good to have a Center for Disease Control, where people like me live call for a long time.

Chris Billington, from the University of Melbourne, contributed to the art department.

Author: Adrian Esterman – Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South Australia


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